Meeks Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS65 KREV 231111 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
311 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.CORRECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

* Lighter showers linger this afternoon through early Sunday
  morning. Gusty winds persist but will be lighter than yesterday.

* Another storm brings more valley rain, mountain snow and gusty
  Sierra ridge winds both on Monday and Tuesday.

* Drier and cool conditions return by midweek and into
  Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rain in the valleys and mountain snow above 7000 ft continue as of
the time of this writing around 230AM. Periods of showers will
continue through the morning hours as per the HREF. Snow showers
with rates of 2 inches per hour early this morning will continue
for a few more hours as seen in the HRRR, but then drop after
sunrise to less than an inch in the highest elevations of the
Sierra. Snow levels are slowly decreasing, slower than what was
expected with yesterday`s model runs. So, snow amounts around 5-7
kft have come down a bit but not much. Still we are expecting at
least 1-2 feet of snow above 7000 ft. In elevations below 7000 a
rain-snow mix continues with the most likely scenario of seen 1-2
inches of snow with a 20-50% chance of exceeding 4 inches.

Liquid water equivalents continue to be around 1-2 inches above
8000 ft and up to 3 inches near the Sierra crest in the vicinity
of the Tahoe Basin. Amounts over western Lassen will be around
0.5-1 inch of liquid. Western NV valleys should see another
0.1-0.3 inches of rain today.

Winds have decreased in intensity, but still expect gusty south to
southwest through the day. Gusts early this morning in Mineral
county persist, near Walker Lake with gusts exceeding 60 mph.
Therefore, we extended the warning in this area, and expired the
other areas where gusts went below 60 mph. Winds should continue
to decrease through the morning hours. However, another uptick in
winds is expected this afternoon, but speeds will be lower than
yesterday. Max gusts in the valleys should be below 50 mph this
afternoon, below 50 mph in the Sierra communities, and below 100
mph in the Sierra crest.

We will have a break of active weather between Sunday morning
through Monday morning. Then the next wave passes through Monday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. This wave appears to hit us
farther south than the current one with the main focus been over
the eastern Sierra. We are still seeing another foot of snow
possible near the Sierra crest with a 60-90% chance over
Mono/Alpine county and 40-70% over the Tahoe Basin. For Sierra
communities at lake level there is also a 40-70% chance of at
least 4 inches of snow. There is a 10-40% for 4 inches in Mono
County communities near Highway 395. Western NV valleys may not
see much snow as snow levels remain generally above 5000 ft
through Wednesday.

For Thanksgiving Weekend, drier conditions are expected through
most of the week. Although a few models are suggesting some light
showers next Friday or Saturday. Temperatures will be cool but
will be in a slow warming trend.

-Crespo

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. MVFR
to IFR conditions along with mountain obscurations are likely
with the strongest showers over the Sierra. Conditions will slowly
improve after 18Z as CIGS increase with showers becoming more
isolated this afternoon. Anyways, 1-2 inches of snow are still
possible for KTRK and KTVL with a 20-30% chance of exceeding 4
inches. Gusty southwest winds persist with gusts 20-30 kts at
terminals. Turbulence and LLWS will continue through 20Z.

Gusty winds and chances for valley rain and mountain snow
continue early next week.

-Crespo

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Periods of gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow will impact the
Sierra through early Sunday morning, with another storm possible
from the Monday PM-Wednesday AM time frame.

* Snow levels: Start around 7000-7500 early this morning the drop
  to 5500-6000 feet late this morning, early afternoon.

* Snow totals Saturday: 12-24" along the Sierra crest, with a
  10-40% chance of 24-36". Peak snowfall rates around 2"/hour
  before sunrise this morning.

* SWE: 80-90% chance of at least 1" SWE along the Sierra crest
  Saturday, with 40-60% chance of exceeding 2" SWE.

* Strong ridgetop gusts of 60-80 mph, with peak gusts near 100 mph
  on Saturday.

-MJD/Crespo

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Another push of moderate to heavy rain today into early Saturday
across northern CA will lead to water ponding in poor drainage
areas and a second rise in rivers and streams throughout the area
before rainfall tapers and/or transitions to snow.

Flooding remains of the greatest concern in areas of Lassen (west
of US-395) and Plumas counties, where soils are now wet and
streams are elevated. That is combined with lower elevation
watersheds where more precipitation will fall as rain and may lead
to minor flooding of the Susan River as well as small creeks and
streams in the area. As of this moment, the Susan River appears to
be cresting with very low chances of reaching minor flood stage,
but high flows remain through Saturday morning.

No other mainstem rivers are forecast to approach flood stages.

Flooding concerns decrease south of Plumas County where less
rainfall has occurred, but significant rises of small creeks and
streams is still likely from Lake Tahoe north.

Recent burn areas north of Lake Tahoe remain a concern for minor
flooding, exacerbated by the transport of ash, sediment, and
debris that may obstruct drainage areas.

Check for river forecast updates at cnrfc.noaa.gov.

Bardsley/Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002-004.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning NVZ001.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071>073.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon CAZ071>073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.

     Flood Advisory until 12 PM PST this afternoon CAZ071.
&&

$$